President-elect Biden starts his term in office with the Democrats in control of the Presidency, House and Senate, potentially making the confirmation of key trade policy staff, renewal of Trade Promotion Authority and passage of future trade deals more likely.

Biden has stated his administration will be in no rush to remove tariffs or sign new trade deals. Yet, there’s an economic impetus to remove trade barriers for U.S. businesses with U.S. exports down by 7.7% year over year in the 12 months to Nov. 30.

President Trump’s use of section 201 (safeguarding) and section 232 (national security) tariffs have cut imports of washing machines, solar panels, steel and aluminum by 35.6% in the 12 months to Oct. 31 versus 2017. Coalition building could see the Trump administration’s section 301 review of Vietnam being abandoned while exemptions for allies from steel and aluminum tariffs and the cancellation of solar panel import duties may assist other policy objectives. ​​​

The defining geopolitical rivalry for the U.S. under Biden will remain China. Tariffs on Chinese imports will likely remain in place. The phase 1 trade deal may not be under threat yet but a wider ranging phase 2 deal planned by Trump will likely not materialize given recent U.S. sanctions focused on Hong Kong, Xinjiang and the tech and financing sectors.

Nonetheless, China’s purchasing under phase 1 remains below target with year-to-date average exports worth $7.16 billion versus the $11.98 billion target set in the agreement. An improvement to $11.1 billion in the month of November came at the peak of the soybean and natural gas shipping seasons. Biden’s response to President Xi’s 14th Five Year Plan may provide a guide to the economic side of the two countries’ rivalry.


Hebei Longsheng Metals and Minerals Co., ltd.