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Trade war season 3 finale, news by Hebei Longsheng

Trade War Show Season 3 Finale - Trimming tariffs, leaving doubts
The U.S. and Chinese governments have reached an outline “phase 1” trade deal covering a series of tariff reductions, policy changes, purchase commitments and an enforcement mechanism. This two-part report looks at the policy implications and purchase commitments in a deal that ends a trade war that entered its third year in September.

In terms of policy, the nine-chapter deal is now subject to legal and interpretation reviews, likely to run at least until January. Prior experience over the past two years has shown success is far from guaranteed. The impact of the tariff roll-back will likely be minimal with list 4A duties cut to 7.5% from 15% on $124 billion of imports. Tariffs of 25% on $216 billion of shipments will remain in place.

There’s also the potential for a "snap back" if negotiations or enforcement fails, casting uncertainties over corporate supply chain strategies. U.S. imports of list 4A products – focused on consumer goods – dropped by 29.7% year over year in October and have since passed their seasonal peak. Most companies won’t have had, or taken, the time to alter their supply chains.

One exception may be televisions. The largest drop in list 4A imports in dollar terms was imports of televisions by firms including TCL and TPV which fell by 67.8% in October. That’s only partly been offset by a 52.4% surge in imports from Mexico, including a 57.3% increase in imports from Samsung Electronics and 69.2% jump by LG Electronics. Sony’s rose by a more modest 6.0%.

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