Trump trade war tank of 25B, news by Hebei Longsheng
| Trump could have $25B in the trade war tank if China deal fails before elections The U.S. Department of Agriculture is set to release a 25% tranche of $15.9 billion of payments to American farmers, designed by the administration of President Donald Trump to offset China’s tariffs on exports of U.S. farm goods. That’s nominally being supported by duties paid on U.S. imports from China resulting from section 301 tariffs. Those likely reached $6.04 billion in October and $40.9 billion – or $25 billion more than the farm payments – since Jul. 2018 when the tariffs were first applied. U.S. agricultural exports to China fell 38.8% year over year in the 12 months to Sept. 30 compared to a year earlier and by 53.3% compared to 2016. The latter was worth $10.4 billion including $9.20 billion from lower soybean exports. Over the longer-term farm exports to other countries – including Mexico, Japan and South Korea – have increased such that total U.S. farm exports only fell by 1.9% in the past 12 months versus 2016. Yet, the prospects of a failure of phase 1 talks and a more recent slip in exports to Japan and South Korea indicate further farm aid may be needed. Farming will likely be an issue for the 2020 elections. The states that have lost the most exports to China resulting from tariffs on U.S. farm exports on a per capita basis have been Louisiana, Washington and Illinois. |
