Trump is winning the tariff war news by Hebei Longsheng
| Trump's China position may be emboldened as tariff policy "works" U.S. international trade activity fell 1.0% year over year in January, though there was a 3.7% reduction in the trade deficit – the Trump administration’s preferred trade metric where a lower number is seen as preferable. Trade with China continued to decline, but appears to have moved as a result of U.S. trade policy. The U.S> trade deficit with China fell 4.1% year over year to $34.5 billion, the first decline since Feb. 2017, just ahead of a resumption of talks this week between U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and China’s Vice Premier Liu He. Those talks will seek to balance policy change, compliance measures, purchasing commitments and tariffs. While exports to China fell 27.5% in January to their lowest since Sept. 2010, that was slower than the previous decline and was outweighed in dollar terms by a 9.1% drop in imports from China. The $1.48 billion net export swing "against" China may be taken as a sign that tariff pressure is working. Indeed preliminary data for China suggests more of the same occurred in February. Yet, the total net cost of the trade war on the basis of reduced U.S. net exports to China is nearer a $27.5 billion year over year in the Jul. 1, 2018 to Jan. 31, 2019 period. |
