The third quarter of 2018 brought a tumult of completed and newly started trade deals for the administration of President Donald Trump. Six ongoing deals will define the success of the President’s trade policy approach ahead of the midterm elections, and beyond. 

The renegotiated NAFTA deal, reborn as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) has been agreed in principle but has yet to be signed. The biggest risk is whether an obstructionist Congress post-elections agrees to sign it or not.

The punch and counter-punch of tariffs against Chinese exports, started by the section 301 review of intellectual property rights, has no clear “off-ramp” at this stage. The next move is for President Trump to decide whether to escalate duties to cover all of China’s exports and run the risk of further retaliation.

New trade negotiations have been started with both the European Union - which will likely focus on technical barriers to trade rather than tariffs - and Japan. The latter will likely take the longest to achieve given the requirements for Congressional consultations. 

In the meantime negotiations with India are less formal and still ongoing, though tackling what the President has called “The Tariff King” will require balancing the needs of Make-in-India with Make-America-Great-Again. Finally the Taiwanese government has called explicitly for free trade negotiations. That’s exactly what the Trump administration is looking for, but would lead it into a geopolitical quagmire.